Mortgage Rates Update: January 15th, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- 3 days ago
- 1 min read
The mortgage market experienced a significant move toward improved affordability during the week ending January 15, 2026. As an economist who closely tracks market volatility, I find the latest data particularly encouraging because mortgage rates outpaced the downward movement of benchmark Treasury yields. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped by 10 basis points to settle at 6.06 percent. During the same period, the 10 Year Treasury rate saw a more modest decline of 2 basis points, falling to 4.17 percent.
This divergence led to a healthy compression of the market spread, which narrowed by 8 basis points. While we are not yet back to historical norms, this tightening suggests that the risk premium demanded by investors is beginning to thaw.
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Key Developments
Key market metrics as of 1/15/2026 are:
The 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate is 6.06 percent.
The 10 Year T-Note Rate is 4.17 percent.
The Current Spread is 189 basis points.
The Safety Cushion above the historical average is 21 basis points.
For a $100,000 loan, this rate drop translated to a $6 reduction in the monthly payment, now at $603. With the spread sitting just 21 basis points above the long-term 168 basis points average, we are seeing the most favorable pricing alignment in recent months.
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