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Mortgage Rates Update: February 26th, 2026

The final week of February 2026 brought a welcome shift for the housing market as mortgage rates broke below the six percent threshold for the first time in several months. For the week ending February 26, 2026, the 30 year fixed mortgage rate decreased by 11 basis points to settle at 5.98 percent. This decline was largely driven by a parallel move in the bond market, where the 10 Year Treasury rate dropped 7 basis points to 4.02 percent.


As an economist, I am encouraged by the 4 basis point compression in the market spread this week. While the spread remains elevated relative to historical norms, this tightening indicates that lenders are beginning to pass more of the treasury yield savings along to the consumer.



Upcoming releases:

 

  • Next net new job release is March 6


  • Next inflation release March 11


  • Next Fed meeting is March  18


Key Developments

Key market metrics as of 2/26/2026 are:

  • The 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate is 5.98 percent.

  • The 10 Year T-Note Rate is 4.02 percent.

  • The Current Spread is 196 basis points.

  • The Safety Cushion above the historical average is 28 basis points.


For a 100,000 dollar loan, the monthly payment decreased by 7 dollars to 598 dollars. With the spread now 28 basis points above the long term average of 168, we are seeing a gradual return toward a more efficient pricing environment.

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