Mortgage Rates Update: February 12th, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- 45 minutes ago
- 1 min read
The mortgage market for the week ending February 12, 2026, revealed a significant widening in the spread between primary mortgage rates and secondary market yields. As an economist who prioritizes market efficiency, I find this week's data underscores a cautious stance among lenders. While the 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased by 2 basis points to settle at 6.09 percent, the underlying 10 Year Treasury rate plummeted by a more substantial 12 basis points to 4.09 percent.
This disproportionate move caused the mortgage Treasury spread to widen by 10 basis points, reaching a total of 200 basis points. We are now seeing a safety cushion that is 32 basis points above the long-term historical average of 168 basis points.
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Next new jobs March 6 (Feb 6 came in at a modest 130,000; however, 90% of the jobs were in the health and Social Services fields. Not good)
Next CPI release is Feb 13
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Key Developments
Key market metrics as of 2/12/2026 are:
The 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate is 6.09 percent.
The 10 Year T Note Rate is 4.09 percent.
The Current Spread is 200 basis points.
The Safety Cushion above the historical average is 32 basis points.
For a 100,000 dollar loan, the monthly payment decreased by 2 dollars to 605 dollars. Although the primary rate is lower, the expanding spread suggests that mortgage pricing is not yet fully reflecting the recent rallies in the bond market.