Commentary:
The next jobs were released May 3 and the April 5 new jobs came in at 303,000. While this was a slightly elevated total, it was comparable to job growth over the past 12 months.
The next CPI release is May 15 April 10 CPI increased from 3.2% to 3.5%. Energy prices up and the March 2023 data point was very low and it fell out of the annual CPI calc as the new data for March 2024 came in. CPI for March 2024.
Next Fed meeting is May 1.
For the week ending 4.25.24 Mortgage rates INCREASED 7bp to 7.17%. For a $100,000 loan.
The monthly payment INCREASED $5.00 and to $677/mo or $0.16/day.
Mortgage rates INCREASED 7bp while the 10-year Treasury rates INCREASED 6bp for the week ended 4/25/24. The net difference resulted in a 1bp increase in the spread to 247bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 79 bp above the historical spread.
The historic spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see green line, right axis) and currently is 79bp above the historical norm.
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