Treasury Rates Update: October 30th, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- 3 days ago
- 2 min read
The financial markets reacted sharply this week to the Federal Reserve's policy decision on October 29th, where the Fed decreased rates by 0.25%. This move immediately translated into higher Treasury yields across most of the curve, representing a significant reversal of the downward trend observed in previous weeks.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next new jobs Oct 3 (Fed Govt shutdown, no data released)
Next CPI release is Nov 13 (Fed Govt shutdown, delayed but released on 10.24.25. Rose from 2.9% to 3.0%)
Next Fed meeting is Dec 10 (Oct 29 Fed reduced rates 25bp again, 2nd time in 2 meetings)
Key Developments
The 10 Year Treasury rate was up 10bp for the week. This large daily surge of 0.09 on October 29th, the day of the Fed announcement, drove the weekly change. Over the last two weeks, the net change in the 10 Year rate is now a positive 0.12.
Comparing the current yield curve (October 30th) to the previous week (October 23rd) reveals a broad increase in rates from the one-year maturity outward:
The 2-year rate increased by 0.13%, the largest change of the week. Longer terms saw increases of approximately 11bp. The short end of the curve, specifically the 1 month rate, decreased by 0.07%.
This dynamic led to a flattening of the curve, with the 10 to 2-year spread decreasing to 0.50% from 0.53%. Despite the Fed's rate cut, the yield curve for terms of two years and longer remains positive. Looking ahead, the market will focus on the Next Jobs report on November 7th and the Next CPI release on November 13th. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for December 10th.
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