Treasury Rates Update: October 23rd, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- 6 days ago
- 1 min read
The narrative in the U.S. Treasury market has decidedly shifted this past week, with rates across the curve experiencing a notable decline, signaling potential market jitters or a flight to safety. This follows a period marked by government dysfunction, including the lack of CPI data this week and the earlier Federal Government shutdown.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next net new job release is 11.7.25 (10.3.25 Fed Govt shutdown, no data)
Next inflation release 11.13.25 (10.15.25 Fed Govt shutdown, no data)
Next Fed meeting is 10.29.25
Key Developments
Key movements in the 10-Year Treasury are instructive:
Over the past week (ending 10/16), the 10-Year rate was DOWN 15bp.
The net change over the past two weeks decreased 11bp.
The steepest one-day drop was -0.09 on 10/10.
The broader yield curve, comparing 10/16/2025 (red line) to 10/9/2025 (green line) , reveals a flattening in the short end and significant declines across all other maturities.
The 1-month rate was unchanged at 0.00%.
The 2-year rate saw the largest weekly drop, decreasing by 19bp.
Rates for longer terms fell by ~15bp, with the 5-year also down 19bp.
As a result of these movements, the 10-to-2-year spread widened to 0.58%, marking a steeper curve than the 0.54% recorded last week. While the curve remains positive for terms of 2 years and longer , the high 1-month rate (currently 54bp above the 1-year rate) continues to anchor the short end. The market now looks to the Next Fed meeting on 10/29 for clarity on policy direction.
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