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Treasury Rates Update: March 21st, 2024


Virtually no movement in Treasuries this past week even thought there was a Fed meeting on 3.20.


Below is the Fed's Dot Matrix of anticipated Fed rate movements over the next 3 years.  18 Fed members participates and each dot represents an individual member. 


Fed's minutes will be released April 10.  Looking for indication of progress and if there are changes to their efforts to reduce the Fed's balance sheet. It was a topic on  the Fed's FOMC 3.21.24 meeting agenda.  


I suspect this is why spreads of mortgage to 10 year US Treasury remain at near record highs currently at 92bp above historic level.  If there is a policy change, it will have a beneficial impact on the housing market given Freddie rates are currently 6.87%.  


Keep in mind, Shelter is 32% of CPI and 50% of core. (see last inflation article)  Shelter continues to run hot but is coming down.  Last thing the Fed wants to do is re-ignite this sector given their efforts to contain inflation.The next inflation release is 4.10.24.  Most recent past: 2.13.24 CPI decreased from 3.1% to 3.2%


For the past week, 10 Year Treasury rates were down 2bp. Net change in 2 weeks is up 18bp.


The red line is the most current rates while the green line is from one week ago. Longer-term rates decreased MORE relative to shorter-term rates, as such the inverted yield curve is less steep.

For terms 5+ years, the Yield Curve is positive.

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