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Treasury Rates Update: March 21st, 2024

Comentary:  


Virtually no movement in Treasuries this past week even thought there was a Fed meeting on 3.20.

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Below is the Fed's Dot Matrix of anticipated Fed rate movements over the next 3 years.  18 Fed members participates and each dot represents an individual member. 

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Fed's minutes will be released April 10.  Looking for indication of progress and if there are changes to their efforts to reduce the Fed's balance sheet. It was a topic on  the Fed's FOMC 3.21.24 meeting agenda.  

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I suspect this is why spreads of mortgage to 10 year US Treasury remain at near record highs currently at 92bp above historic level.  If there is a policy change, it will have a beneficial impact on the housing market given Freddie rates are currently 6.87%.  

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Keep in mind, Shelter is 32% of CPI and 50% of core. (see last inflation article)  Shelter continues to run hot but is coming down.  Last thing the Fed wants to do is re-ignite this sector given their efforts to contain inflation.The next inflation release is 4.10.24.  Most recent past: 2.13.24 CPI decreased from 3.1% to 3.2%


 

For the past week, 10 Year Treasury rates were down 2bp. Net change in 2 weeks is up 18bp.

 

The red line is the most current rates while the green line is from one week ago. Longer-term rates decreased MORE relative to shorter-term rates, as such the inverted yield curve is less steep.


For terms 5+ years, the Yield Curve is positive.


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