Treasury Rates Update: July 23rd, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- Jul 24
- 1 min read
In my decades of monitoring fixed-income markets, sharp selloffs ahead of a Federal Reserve decision usually indicate a dramatic shift in market conviction. Despite the July 14th CPI print showing encouraging disinflation from 4.2% down to 3.5%, the Treasury market spent this past week aggressively pushing yields higher across every maturity. Investors are rapidly recalibrating expectations as pre-meeting positioning takes hold.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate surged 14 basis points (bp) this week to land at 4.71%, pushing its cumulative 14-day advance to an impressive 17bp. Rather than long-term growth concerns leading the push, intermediate maturities experienced the heaviest selling, resulting in a slight flattening of the curve.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next jobs release is August 7
Next CPI release is August 12
The next Fed meeting is on July 29
Key Developments
Intermediate Spike: The 2-year yield led the advance, leaping 21bp to 4.37%, while the 5-year rate climbed 18bp to 4.46%.
Curve Flattening: Outpaced by intermediate yields, the 10-to-2 year spread compressed to 0.34%, down from 0.41% last week.
Front-End Surge: The 1-year rate jumped 16bp to 4.15%, widening its inverted spread against the 1-month rate (3.82%) to -0.33%.
Long-End Rise: The 30-year yield rose 8bp to reach 5.17%.
All eyes now fix on the July 29th Fed meeting for definitive monetary direction.
Comments