Treasury Rates Update: July 17th, 2025

This week’s Treasury market update reveals a notable upward shift in yields, driven by a sharper-than-expected inflation report. Economist Bill Knudson emphasizes that while rate increases were broad-based, the most significant movement occurred in the long end of the curve—reshaping the yield landscape and risk expectations.

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Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:  

• The next new jobs report is August 1.

  
  

• The next CPI release is August 12.

  
  

• The next Fed meeting is  July 30.  

Treasury Rates Update: July 17th, 2025

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Key Developments:

• 10-Year Treasury Surges: The 10-Year Treasury rate rose 12 basis points (bp), from 4.35% to 4.47%. Over the past two weeks, the cumulative increase is 17bp.

• Yield Curve Movement:

  • 2-Year: 3.91%

  • 10-Year: 4.47%

  • 30-Year: 5.01%

  • The 10–2 Year spread steepened to 0.56%, up from 0.49%, signaling a pivot toward longer-term inflation concerns.

• Macroeconomic Context:

  • CPI climbed from 2.4% to 2.7%, reintroducing inflation pressure into markets.

  • Job creation was moderate at 147,000 new positions.

  • The next Fed meeting is scheduled for July 30.

Knudson notes that long-term rates are absorbing inflation surprises faster than short-term instruments, steepening the curve and reflecting a shift in forward-looking risk pricing. For fixed-income strategists and borrowers alike, this re-steepening marks a recalibration moment—and a reminder that inflation still holds sway over the path of yields.