Treasury Rates Update: July 16th, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- Jul 17
- 1 min read
The fixed-income market is navigating a fascinating tug-of-war as we head toward the Federal Reserve's July 29th meeting. In my years analyzing macroeconomic trends, it is rare to see such cleanly conflicting signals: a highly sluggish July 2nd jobs report showing only 57,000 additions was quickly followed by a stellar July 14th CPI print, which saw inflation fall from 4.2% to 3.5%. Rather than signaling economic panic, the bond market responded with an orderly, marginal steepening of the yield curve.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate edged up 3 basis points (bp) this week to finish at 4.57%, representing a cumulative 14-day increase of 9bp.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next jobs release is August 7
Next CPI release is August 12
The next Fed meeting is on July 29
Key Developments
Yield Curve Steepening: The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields expanded to 0.41%, up from 0.38% last week, as long-term rates outpaced the short end.
Long-End Pressure: The 30-year rate climbed 4bp to finish at 5.09%, up from 5.05% last week.
Short-End Divergence: The 1-month yield ticked up 4bp to 3.76%, while the 1-year yield dropped 3bp to 3.99%.
Intermediate Stability: The 2-year yield held flat at 4.16%, while the 5-year rate crept up just 1bp to 4.28%.
As policymakers prepare to meet, these numbers show a market confident in disinflation but watchful of labor growth. The upcoming August 7th jobs report and August 12th CPI release will write the next chapter.
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