Summary: On 12.13.23 the Fed kept rates unchanged however they clearly indicated that up to 3 rate cuts were a distinct possibility in 2024. After that announcement, two senior Fed members indicated that rate reductions could be made later in the year pending economic data.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release
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1.5.24 New jobs data for December released 216,000 Not too hot, not too cold.
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1.11.24 CPI data for December released monthly 0.3% which replaced Dec 2022 month's 0.1%. Larger number replaced smaller one, this caused the annual CPI to increase from 3.1% to 3.3%
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1.31.24 Fed Meeting
For the past 2 weeks, 10-year Treasury rates were up 23bp. For the past week, those rates were up 16bp.
The red line is the most current rate while the green line is from one week ago.
Longer-term rates decreased less relative to shorter-term rates, as such the inverted yield curve is less steep. For terms 5+ years, the Yield Curve is positive. One month rates were down 1bp.
