Summary: On 1.31.24 the Fed kept rates unchanged however they clearly indicated that up to 3 rate cuts were a distinct possibility later in 2024.
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
2.1.24 New jobs data for January released 353,000 A robust amount. Next release 3.8.24. In response to the jobs numbers, 10-year Treasuries rose 28bp over inflation concerns and will the Fed make their future rate cuts.
2.13.24 next CPI. Likely to cause a decrease from 3.3% to 3.1%
No Fed meeting in February (March 20 is the next meeting)
For the past week, 10-year Treasury rates were up 28bp. This offsets the week before that in which rates were down 27bp. The net change in 2 weeks is 1bp.
The red line is the most current rate while the green line is one week ago. Short-term rates increased MORE relative to longer-term rates, as such the inverted yield curve is less steep. For terms 5+ years, the Yield Curve is positive.
