Treasury Rates Update: February 12th, 2026
- Bill Knudson
- Mar 15
- 1 min read
As we approach the critical mid-March Federal Reserve meeting, the Treasury market has delivered a powerful signal of tightening financial conditions. In my years of tracking these cycles, this week’s action stands out as an aggressive, broad-based surge in yields, suggesting that investors are front-running a potentially hawkish stance from the central bank.
The 10-year Treasury rate jumped 14 basis points (bp) over the past seven days, bringing the cumulative two-week increase to a staggering 25bp. This upward pressure was relentless across the entire term structure, with the most pronounced moves occurring in intermediate and long-dated maturities
Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:
Next net new job release is April 3
Next CPI release is April 10
Next Fed meeting is March 18
Key Developments
Long-End Surge: The 10-year and 30-year rates both climbed by 14bp, while the 5-year rate increased by 16bp.
Intermediate Pressure: The 2-year rate rose by 19bp, significantly outpacing the long end.
Yield Curve Compression: Due to the 2-year outperforming the 10-year, the 10-to-2 year spread decreased to 0.51% from 0.56% last week.
Front-End Inversion: The 1-month rate edged up 1bp, leaving it 10bp above the 1-year rate.
With the yield curve steepening and the 10-year benchmark pushing higher, the market is clearly repricing risk. All eyes now turn to the March 18th Federal Reserve meeting for definitive policy direction.
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