Mortgage Rates Update: October 23rd, 2025
- Bill Knudson
- 6 days ago
- 1 min read
For the week ending October 23rd, 2025, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate continued its recent downward trajectory, falling by a notable 8 basis points (bp). This decline is particularly interesting as the 10-Year Treasury rate simultaneously increased by 2bp, a divergence that suggests idiosyncratic factors are impacting mortgage-backed security pricing, leading to a narrowing of the spread.
For a $100,000 loan at 6.19%, the monthly payment decreased $5 to $612
Upcoming releases:
Next new jobs Oct 3 (Fed Govt shutdown, no data released)
Next CPI release is Oct 15 (Fed Govt shutdown, no data released)
Next Fed meeting is Oct 29 (The Fed decreased rates 25bp on Sept 17)
Key Developments
The week's movements resulted in a decrease in the spread by 10bp, bringing it slightly closer to its historical average. However, the lending environment remains conservative.
Key metrics as of 10/23/2025 are:
The 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate is 6.19%.
The 10-Year T-Note Rate is 4.01%.
The Current Spread (30-yr minus 10-yr) is 218bp.
The spread is 50bp above the historical average of 168bp.
This 50bp buffer demonstrates that the market is still pricing in significant risk premiums, even as the 30-year rate moves lower. The positive rate movement provided tangible relief to borrowers: for a $100,000 loan, the monthly payment decreased by $5 to $612. We will be watching closely to see if this trend of an uncoupled, and falling, mortgage rate persists, or if market forces push the spread back to its historical mean.
Comments