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Mortgage Rates Update: June 29th, 2023

Headline: In the week ending 6.29.23 mortgage rates increased by 4bp. to 6.94%. At the beginning of the quarter, they were 6.51%. During the quarter inflation has decreased from 5.0% to 4.0% Inflation is down 100bp and yet rates are up 40bp. Spreads remain at near record highs, well in excess of historical levels. This is not normal.

 

For the week ending 6.29.23 Mortgage rates INCREASED 4bp to 6.94%. Since the middle of March, mortgage rates had been in a tight range between 6.50% to 6.65%. SVB bank went under on March 10.


For a $100,000 loan the monthly payment INCREASED $4 to $ 661/ mo or $ 0.09/ day.

 

Mortgage rates INCREASED 4bp while the 10 Year Treasury rates INCREASED 5bp for the week ended 6/22/23. The net difference resulted in a 1bp decrease in the spread to 309bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 141bp above the historical spread.

 

The historic spread between the 10 Year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see the green line, right axis) and currently is 141bp above the historical norm. For this spread to return to the historical norm, either mortgage rates will decrease or 10 Year Treasury rates will increase.


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