Updated: Jul 1
Headline: In the week ending 6.22.23 the CPI decreased from 4.9% to 4.0% 9 days earlier and the Fed held the Fed Funds rate unchanged, the first time in 18 months, yet mortgage rates decreased by another 2bp. It is like the mortgage market is in its own rate world.
For the week ending 6.22.23 Mortgage rates DECREASED 2bp to 6.90%. Since the middle of March, mortgage rates had been in a tight range between 6.50% to 6.65%. SVB bank went under on March 10.
For a $100,000 loan, the monthly payment DECREASED by $1 to $ 658/ mo or $0.04/day.
Mortgage rates DECREASED 2bp while the 10 Year Treasury rates INCREASED 8bp for the week ended 6/22/23. The net difference resulted in a 10bp decrease in the spread to 310bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 142bp above the historical spread.
The historic spread between the 10 Year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see the green line, right axis) and currently is 142bp above the historical norm. For this spread to return to the historical norm, either mortgage rates will decrease or 10 Year Treasury rates will increase.