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Mortgage Rates Update: July 6th, 2023

Headline: In the week ending 7.4.23 mortgage rates increased by 10bp. to 7.04%. At the beginning of the quarter, they were 6.51%. During the quarter inflation has decreased from 5.0% to 4.0% Inflation is down 100bp and yet rates are up 50bp. Spreads remain at near record highs, well in excess of historical levels. This is not normal.


For the week ending 7.6.23 Mortgage rates INCREASED 10bp to 7.04%. At the beginning of June rates were 7.02% and by July 4 they were 7.04% virtually no change.

For a $100,000 loan, the monthly payment INCREASED $7 to $ 668/ mo or $ 0.22/ day.


Mortgage rates INCREASED 10bp while the 10 Year Treasury rates INCREASED 20bp for the week ended 7/6/23. The net difference resulted in a 10bp decrease in the spread to 299bp. With the historical spread being 168, a “safety cushion” of 131bp is now above the historical spread.


The historic spread between the 10 Year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168bp (see the green line, right axis) and currently is 131bp above the historical norm. For this spread to return to the historical norm, either mortgage rates will decrease or 10 Year Treasury rates will increase.

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