Upcoming releases:
The next new jobs report is January 10 - If new jobs come in less than 200,000 that will have downward impact on mortgage rates.
The next CPI release is January 15 - The December 2023 monthly total of 0.2% falls out, annual 2.7% will not materially change. Improvements will start occurring in Feb and March 2025
The next Fed meeting is January 29
For the week ending 1.9.25 Mortgage rates INCREASED 2bp to 6.93%. This past week, for a $100,000 loan the monthly payment increased from $659/mo to $661/mo or $0.04 a day.
For the week ending 1.9.25 mortgages increased 2bp while the 10 Year Treasury rates increased 11bp. Spread decreased 9bp to 225bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 57bp above the historical spread.
The historic spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see green line, right axis) and currently is 57bp above the historical norm. In July this spread was 150bp. Mortgage rates have decreased more than the 10-year.
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