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Mortgage Rates Update: April 13th, 2023

Headline: Mortgage rates decreased by 1bp and the 10-year Treasury rates increased by 15bp. Spreads are now at 305bp. While not a record, the last time spreads were this large was November 2022 and mortgage rates feathered down 100bp over the following 12 weeks.


The CPI decreased from 6.00% to 5.00% as of 4.12.23. Today's mortgage rates will not have had time to reflect this improvement.


The Fed's next meeting is 5.2.23.

 

For the week ending 4.13.23 Mortgage rates DECREASED 1bp to 6.50%.

For a $100,000 loan, the monthly payment DECREASED by $1 to $632/mo or $ 0.02/ day

 

Mortgage rates DECREASED 1bp, 10 Year Treasury rates INCREASED 15bp. The net difference resulted in a decrease of 16bp in the spread to 305bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 137bp above the historical spread.

 

The historic spread between the 10 Year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see the green line, right axis) and currently, there is a 137bp above the historical norm. For this spread to return to the historical norm, either mortgage rates will decrease further or 10 Year Treasury rates will increase. The last time spreads were this large (Nov 10, 2022) mortgage rates feathered down 100bp over the following 12 weeks.













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