Data Source: records.nhl.com
When asked about his extraordinary hockey success, Wayne Gretzky said:
“I skate to where the puck is going, not to where the puck has been.”
The truth is, Mr. Gretzky missed the majority of the shots he took. His lifetime NHL stats are 17.6% shots made to shots taken. (894 / 5088) [i] The message is that being "The Great One" is something much more than a high shooting percentage. He intuitively anticipated where the puck was going, all the while, quickly adapting as new information updated his understanding....all in a split second!
Even if you are not a big hockey fan, I encourage you to take a walk through the NHL's all-time leader data. It is an amazing walk down memory lane. I recognized and reminisced with many of these greats.
Alex Ovechkin, of course, is near the top of the list as the only active player. Also, do you remember Phil Esposito from The Miracle on Ice when the U.S. won Olympic gold? Other names like Gordie Howe, Jaromir Jagr, Mark Messier, Ron Francis, and many other greats. But the data points to one name far above all….That is Wayne Gretzky. Gretzky’s combination of goals AND assists may never be matched.
This article was originally published on June 29, 2021.
About the author: Jeff Hulett is a career banker, data scientist, behavioral economist, and choice architect. Jeff has held banking and consulting leadership roles at Wells Fargo, Citibank, KPMG, and IBM. Today, Jeff is an executive with the Definitive Companies. He teaches personal finance at James Madison University and provides personal finance seminars. Check out his new book -- Making Choices, Making Money: Your Guide to Making Confident Financial Decisions -- at jeffhulett.com.
Venture Capitalists play a similar game. They know, even with the most rigorous selection process, that many investments will underperform, but a single high-flying investment will more than make up for the laggards. The challenge is knowing which investment will fly and quickly adapting as new information is learned.
Who are creative-divergent thinkers? They are those that connect the dots between “what is” in the present and “that which may be" in the future. In the business context, they are adept at using counterfactual thinking, but in the highly structured context of our current business environment and future market trends. They appreciate the future is probabilistically available. They understand the future is informed by ongoing and rigorous expectations updating. They are both analytical and adaptable. Earlier, we discussed our success framework – that “Luck is where preparation and opportunity meet with adaptation and pursuit energy! This is the framework of creative divergence.
Business creative-divergent thinkers seem to have a crystal ball. They seem to have an amazing ability, when given the chance, to identify and implement new, high-impact, high-margin business solutions. But creative-divergent thinkers do not have a crystal ball. What they do have is an incredible ability to update and adapt as new information is presented. In the context of behavioral psychology and cognitive biases, creative divergents have learned to overcome confirmation bias. You can check out my VidCast called “The Nimble Decision-maker” for a deeper dive into confirmation bias.
Who are these creative-divergent thinkers? Many of us! When given the opportunity and support, many can help develop the next big thing.
But like Wayne Gretzky, even the best business solution developers miss many of the shots they take. The key is taking shots in an opportunity-rich, supportive business environment. The essential elements of this environment are:
It is tuned to a highly quantitative understanding of the current environment and future market trends,
The environment is risk-taking tolerant, and
The environment encourages adaptability.
As we discussed with Natalie Fratto in an earlier VidCast [ii], the 3 key elements for adaptability and creative-divergent thinking are:
Do you regularly ask “what if” questions? - this indicates how comfortable you are stimulating creative, divergent thinking.
How flexible are you with active unlearning? - this indicates your ability to quickly error-correct and not fall for confirmation bias. And
Are you an explorer? - this indicates whether you prioritize testing and exploration v exploitation.
Successful businesses encourage the creative-divergent thinking that may lead to the next big thing.
An adaptability case study: Netflix and Blockbuster
An on-point example of creative-divergent-based adaptability is the Netflix and Blockbuster video market competition in the early 2000s. In the opening of Netflix's CEO Reed Hastings' book, No Rules Rules, he says:
"Blockbuster is a thousand times our size"
Hastings whispered this as he and his team stepped into an early 2000 meeting with then Blockbuster CEO John Antioco. They were meeting because the little startup wanted to pitch Blockbuster to buy them for $50 million. An offer Antioco flatly declined. Thank goodness for the future of Netflix and the digital industry they have spawned!
Blockbuster was the dominant movie rental business. (Blockbuster’s revenue peaked in 2004 and they filed for bankruptcy in 2010) Netflix was a small upstart that saw an opportunity to adapt how the industry provides movies. The adaptation was from in-store DVD rentals to mail and ultimately to streaming movie delivery. Blockbuster was unable to adapt, even though they had incredible preparation as a giant in the business and they could presumably see the opportunity in the direction of technology (mail was certainly not a new technology, streaming existed at the time, and bandwidth challenges were in process of being solved.)
The real difference is, Netflix was adaptable:
Netflix asked the “what if” questions regarding movie delivery. They believed people wanted more convenience of home delivery (whether mail or streaming),
Netflix was willing to unlearn the current movie delivery model, though, one could argue they didn’t have much to unlearn at the time. Whereas, Blockbuster was unable to unlearn its movie delivery model. They had substantial investment (i.e., inertia) in their bricks-and-mortar delivery model.
Blockbuster was exploiting its market dominance, with little effective energy given to testing. This was an enabling factor for Netflix’s opportunity to explore and pursue new movie delivery channels.
Ironically, it would seem Blockbuster did not even realize it competed with Netflix until it was too late [iii].
"Neither RedBox nor Netflix are even on the radar screen in terms of competition,"
- Blockbuster CEO Jim Keyes, in 2008
an interview with the Motley Fool
This seeming lack of awareness… OR HUBRIS … did NOT turn out well for blockbuster…. Blockbuster went bankrupt just 2 years after this interview and Netflix has become one of the most dominant media companies in history. Netflix demonstrated creative-divergent-based adaptability!
Notes
[i] Editors, records.nhl.com, accessed in 2024.
Next is the actual graphic used to create the stylized graphic in the article.
[ii] Fratto, 3 ways to measure your adaptability -- and how to improve it, TED Talk Podcast, 2019,
Ms. Fratto is a Venture Capitalist and evaluates business investments based on the adaptability of their owners and operators.
[iii] Rapier, 13 Quotes From Bosses Who Mocked Technology and Got It (Very) Wrong , Inc., 2017